Pengembangan Model Probabilistik Multi-Bencana untuk Mengatasi Keterbatasan Pendekatan Single-Hazard dalam Penilaian Risiko Jembatan
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Abstract
Infrastruktur jembatan menghadapi eksposur yang semakin kompleks terhadap kombinasi bencana hidraulik, seismik, dan beban ekstrem, sementara sebagian besar kajian masih mengadopsi pendekatan single-hazard yang berpotensi meremehkan risiko aktual. Kesenjangan ini menjadi krusial khususnya di wilayah berkembang yang memiliki karakteristik multi-bencana namun keterbatasan model evaluasi berbasis probabilistik yang terintegrasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model probabilistik untuk menilai kerentanan jembatan terhadap kombinasi multi-bencana secara komprehensif. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis Monte Carlo Simulation (10.000 iterasi) dan Reliability Analysis pada sampel jembatan representatif dengan variasi tipe struktur, kondisi fondasi, dan eksposur hazard, menggunakan data hidrologi, seismik, dan beban lalu lintas yang dimodelkan dalam distribusi probabilistik. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas kegagalan meningkat dari rata-rata 0,21 menjadi 0,46 pada kondisi multi-hazard, dengan penurunan indeks keandalan dari 2,1 menjadi 1,3. Analisis sensitivitas mengidentifikasi scour depth dan peak ground acceleration sebagai faktor dominan dengan kontribusi gabungan sebesar 67%. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa interaksi multi-hazard menghasilkan peningkatan risiko yang bersifat non-linear dan signifikan. Secara konseptual, penelitian ini memperluas teori Structural Reliability melalui integrasi Multi-Hazard Risk, serta secara praktis menyediakan dasar kuantitatif untuk evaluasi keamanan dan mitigasi risiko jembatan yang lebih adaptif dan realistis.
Abstract
Bridge infrastructure is increasingly exposed to complex combinations of hydraulic, seismic, and extreme loads, while most existing studies still rely on single-hazard approaches that may underestimate actual risk. This gap is particularly critical in developing regions where multi-hazard conditions prevail but integrated probabilistic assessment models remain limited. This study aims to develop a probabilistic model to assess bridge vulnerability under integrated multi-hazard conditions. A quantitative approach was employed using Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 iterations) and Reliability Analysis on representative bridge samples with varying structural types, foundation conditions, and hazard exposure, utilizing probabilistically modeled hydraulic, seismic, and traffic load data. The results showed that the probability of failure increased from an average of 0.21 to 0.46 under multi-hazard conditions, accompanied by a reduction in reliability index from 2.1 to 1.3. Sensitivity analysis identified scour depth and peak ground acceleration as dominant factors, contributing 67% to the total variance. These findings indicate that multi-hazard interactions produce significant non-linear risk amplification. Conceptually, this study extends Structural Reliability theory by integrating Multi-Hazard Risk, while practically providing a quantitative basis for more adaptive and realistic bridge safety evaluation and risk mitigation strategies.
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