Pengembangan Model Drainase Adaptif Iklim untuk Analisis Risiko Kegagalan Sistem Drainase Perkotaan akibat Variabilitas Curah Hujan Berbasis SWMM
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Abstract
Perubahan iklim telah meningkatkan intensitas dan variabilitas curah hujan yang berdampak langsung terhadap kinerja sistem drainase perkotaan, sementara sebagian besar desain drainase masih berbasis asumsi hidrologi stasioner yang tidak lagi representatif. Kesenjangan ini menyebabkan keterbatasan dalam memahami hubungan kuantitatif antara peningkatan limpasan, kapasitas sistem, dan risiko banjir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis risiko kegagalan sistem drainase perkotaan akibat variabilitas iklim menggunakan pendekatan pemodelan hidrologi kuantitatif. Penelitian dilakukan pada sistem drainase perkotaan dengan lima subcatchment menggunakan data curah hujan historis dan skenario iklim, parameter tata guna lahan, serta karakteristik jaringan drainase. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) yang dikalibrasi dengan data lapangan dan diuji sensitivitasnya terhadap perubahan parameter utama. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa debit limpasan meningkat sebesar 52%, dengan 38% segmen saluran mengalami kegagalan kapasitas dan luas genangan meningkat hingga 58%. Distribusi risiko banjir bergeser signifikan ke kategori tinggi dengan peningkatan hampir dua kali lipat. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa sistem drainase eksisting tidak adaptif terhadap variabilitas iklim dan memerlukan pendekatan desain berbasis risiko. Secara ilmiah, penelitian ini memperkuat integrasi teori hidrologi perkotaan dan analisis risiko, serta secara praktis memberikan dasar untuk pengembangan sistem drainase adaptif yang lebih resilien terhadap perubahan iklim.
Abstract
Climate change has intensified rainfall variability and extremes, directly affecting the performance of urban drainage systems, while most existing designs still rely on stationary hydrological assumptions that are no longer representative. This gap limits the quantitative understanding of the interaction between runoff increase, system capacity, and flood risk. This study aimed to analyze the risk of urban drainage system failure due to climate variability using a quantitative hydrological modeling approach. The study was conducted on an urban drainage system consisting of five subcatchments, utilizing historical rainfall data, climate scenarios, land-use parameters, and drainage network characteristics. The analysis was performed using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), calibrated with field observations and tested through sensitivity analysis. The results showed that peak runoff increased by 52%, with 38% of drainage segments experiencing capacity failure and inundation area expanding by 58%. Flood risk distribution shifted significantly toward higher-risk categories, nearly doubling in extent. These findings indicate that existing drainage systems are not adaptive to climate variability and require a transition toward risk-based design approaches. The study contributes theoretically by strengthening the integration of urban hydrology and flood risk frameworks, and practically by providing a basis for developing climate-adaptive and resilient urban drainage systems.
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