Integrated Risk Framework berbasis GIS–MCDA untuk Mengatasi Fragmentasi Risiko Iklim dan Bencana pada Infrastruktur Kritis
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Abstract
Perubahan iklim dan peningkatan frekuensi multi-bencana telah meningkatkan tekanan terhadap keberlanjutan infrastruktur kritis dan kontinuitas layanan publik di berbagai wilayah. Meskipun berbagai penelitian telah mengembangkan analisis risiko berbasis GIS dan multi-hazard, pendekatan yang digunakan masih cenderung sektoral dan terpisah sehingga belum mampu menangkap interaksi lintas risiko, keterkaitan antar infrastruktur, dan efek sistemik secara komprehensif. Penelitian ini bertujuan menyusun Integrated Climate and Disaster Risk Framework berbasis Resilience Theory dan Integrated Risk Theory untuk meningkatkan efektivitas perencanaan ketahanan infrastruktur kritis terhadap ancaman iklim dan bencana. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan mix methods sequential explanatory melalui integrasi GIS, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), dan SEM-PLS pada lima sektor infrastruktur kritis, yaitu air bersih, transportasi, energi, kesehatan, dan telekomunikasi. Data penelitian diperoleh dari BMKG, BNPB, InaRISK, survei lapangan, observasi teknis, serta expert judgment. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sektor air bersih memiliki skor risiko tertinggi sebesar 0,81, sedangkan sektor telekomunikasi menunjukkan skor risiko terendah sebesar 0,51. Uji ANOVA menunjukkan perbedaan signifikan tingkat kerentanan antar sektor (F = 8,73; p < 0,01), sementara simulasi mitigasi terintegrasi menghasilkan penurunan kerugian infrastruktur sebesar 34% dibandingkan pendekatan parsial. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan risiko terpadu mampu meningkatkan akurasi identifikasi hotspot risiko, prioritas mitigasi, dan ketahanan infrastruktur lintas sektor. Temuan ini memperkuat pengembangan teori ketahanan sistemik sekaligus menyediakan kerangka praktis bagi perencanaan infrastruktur tahan iklim dan multi-bencana dalam bidang teknik sipil..
Abstract
Climate change and the increasing frequency of multi-hazard events have intensified pressures on the sustainability of critical infrastructure and the continuity of public services across regions. Although previous studies have developed GIS-based and multi-hazard risk assessments, existing approaches remain largely sectoral and fragmented, limiting their ability to capture cross-risk interactions, infrastructure interdependencies, and systemic effects comprehensively. This study aimed to develop an Integrated Climate and Disaster Risk Framework based on Resilience Theory and Integrated Risk Theory to improve the effectiveness of critical infrastructure resilience planning against climate and disaster threats. The study employed a sequential explanatory mixed-methods approach integrating GIS, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), and SEM-PLS across five critical infrastructure sectors, including water supply, transportation, energy, healthcare, and telecommunications. Data were collected from BMKG, BNPB, InaRISK, field surveys, technical observations, and expert judgment. The results revealed that the water supply sector exhibited the highest composite risk score (0.81), whereas the telecommunications sector showed the lowest score (0.51). ANOVA testing indicated significant differences in vulnerability levels among infrastructure sectors (F = 8.73; p < 0.01), while integrated mitigation simulations reduced infrastructure losses by 34% compared with partial approaches. The findings demonstrate that integrated risk assessment improves hotspot identification accuracy, mitigation prioritization, and cross-sector infrastructure resilience. This study contributes to the advancement of systemic resilience theory and provides a practical framework for climate-resilient and multi-hazard infrastructure planning in civil engineering.
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